PEMODELAN RESPON OPTIMAL KEBIJAKAN MONETER TERHADAP STABILITAS SEKTOR PERUMAHAN DAN INFLASI DI INDONESIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18592/at-taradhi.v8i1.1518Abstract
Pengalaman krisis keuangan global yang telah terjadi menunjukkan kebijakan moneter perlu untuk memperluas tujuannya, yakni tidak hanya terpaku terhadap tujuan tradisional kebijakan moneter (inflasi) namun juga memperhatikan harga asset. Struktural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) dengan restriksi jangka pendek digunakan dalam penelitian ini untuk mengidentifikasi respon dan dampak kebijakan moneter terhadap harga perumahan dan inflasi termasuk juga variabel makro ekonomi lainnya (output dan nilai tukar) di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data triwulan selama periode 2001Q1-2005Q4. Hasil simulasi dari model SVAR menunjukkan suku bunga kebijakan (BI Rate) berdampak signifikan terhadap harga perumahan dan tingkat inflasi. Kebijakan moneter yang dilakukan melalui perubahan BI Rate merespon secara cepat terhadap shock inflasi, output dan nilai tukar namun tidak memberikan respon terhadap fluktuasi harga perumahan. Model yang dikembangkan dalam penelitian ini juga mengindikasikan kurang efektifnya transmisi kebijakan moneter di Indonesia.Kata kunci: kebijakan moneter, harga perumahan, structural VARReferences
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